The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. The poll, whose . So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. 'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. Gas prices have plummeted. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . The Wisconsin Republican remains deeply disliked by his constituents. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. Buy It Now. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. Learn more. Barnes, 35 also has the support of independents, with 52% of respondents backing him over Johnson, a sizable leap from 41% in June. GOP Love for Johnson Exceeded Only by Democratic Disdain. and Biden approval rating unchanged. Ronald Reagan 1981-89. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. 2020 Senate Elections (55) @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) @baseballot, Mitch McConnell (63 posts) Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. . Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Democratic President Joe Biden was also underwater in the latest poll, with just 40% approving of him and 57% disapproving. A. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. This includes Sens. Biden Job Approval on Issues. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. It began in the age of enlightment (renaissance). Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Kelly won by little under 2.5% in 2020, or about 2 points bigger than Joe Biden's 2020 victory in Arizona. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Shaheen has a +21 net approval rating, Warner has a +19 net approval rating and Smith has a +18 net approval rating. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. Those is Tim. Senator Ron Johnson's . Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Nationally, Sen. Joe Manchin is best known as a thorn in liberals side because he has opposed President Bidens agenda on the social safety net, voting rights, abortion and more. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. Pollapalooza (249) Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. But whatever strengths Johnson brings to his bid for a third term, his current standing with the Wisconsin public poses some real perils. Independent Sens. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. . But Democrats believe that Johnson will suffer due to his strong support of Trump, even though polls show Republicans benefiting in 2022 due to Biden's low approval ratings. Eli Lilly CEO announces it will cap out-of-pocket costs for its insulin at $35, GOP bill would fund security grants for 'pregnancy centers' only if they oppose abortion, House Republicans vote for repeal of climate-related investment regulations, Rep. James Comer criticizes U.S. attorney for not investigating Biden's dead son, House GOP members interrogate Biden administration efforts to address environmental racism, Fact check: No, the Biden administration is not trying to ban gas stoves. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. At this time last week, 42.2 percent approved and 52.5 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . 2023 CNBC LLC. This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. Need to report an error? I'm just trying to convey the truth. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Ron Johnson and His Wife Jane Johnson. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Got a confidential news tip? The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. In Marquettes last poll, 36% of voters viewed him favorably and 58% viewed him unfavorably. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. This is less true for governors, however. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. Wisconsin paints a clear example of the collapse in Bidens popularity. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. Can we marry dogs? Senator, led by Lt. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Independent Sens. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. Post author: Charles Franklin; Post published: August 17, 2022; Post category: Poll Release . Harry S. Truman 1945-53. George H.W. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. A Division of NBCUniversal. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. In July, in our last survey, President Biden's approval rating was 33 percent, one of his worst results of the cycle. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters.